Stanlislaw Lem - The Futorological Congress (1974)
Jorge Luis Borges - The Book of Sand (1975)
Stanlislaw Lem - Solaris (1961)
Agatha Christie - And Then There Were None (1943)
Peter Vansittart - Voices 1870-1914 (1984)
Robert Harris - Lustrum (2009)
Edwin Williamson - The Penguin History of Latin America (1992)
Robert Harris - Fatherland (1992)
Erich Maria Remarque - All Quiet on The Western Front (1929)
Arthur C. Clarke - Profiles of the Future (1972)
Eugene P. Northrop - Riddles in Mathematics (1944)
Brian Cathcart - Were You Still Up For Portillo? (1997)
Eric Hobsbawm - The Age of Revolution (1962)
Charles Dickens - Great Expectations (1860-1)
Geoffrey Hosking - A History of the Soviet Union (1990)
Charlotte Bronte - Jane Eyre (1847)
Gyles Brandreth - Breaking the Code (1990-7)
Stanislaw Lem - A Perfect Vacuum (1971)
Monday, 31 January 2011
Wednesday, 19 January 2011
Dream
I was in a rectangular room, reminiscent of a public library. In the middle were lots of desks and tables and places to sit, although the whole place was busy and had less the atmosphere of a house-of-learning than a trading-floor. I met former chancellor Norman Lamont. Apparently I had invested £700 in some new scheme of his. However, I kept noticing him in conversation with shady characters over in the corner of the room, often taking a book out from the shelves at the same time.
I got involved in what can only be described as a form of poker-bingo. Everybody places their bets and each player is given a number of cards (I counted about 7 in the hand I was in). Then a special card is taken from a huge, separate deck and placed in the centre. This contains the community cards, so rather than actually using normal cards to create a flop, there are pre-created flops as if we were using bingo cards. My friend José (sitting to my left) had placed £3 down and had won the pot with a full house. I had only but down £1 but for some reason my KQJT9 straight was good enough to 'win the side-pot', which of course makes no sense in reality as if there would have been any side-pot it would have been between José and anyone else who staked more than a £1. I received my winnings in stacks of pennies (about 20 of them) and assorted silver. I was annoyed but amused. While the next hand was in progress I suddenly left and went across into another room.
This room was a bar, very similar to the Dirty Duck at the University of Warwick. I asked for a half-pint of coke, but he was having difficulty hearing me. I saw him pour half a pint of diet coke into a pint glass and then top it up with regular coke, as if he were preparing a bitter shandy only... with coke. He then asked for £3.60. Having left most of my coins on the gaming table I scrambled out my debit card. He said there was "-£1.15" on it, so I just whacked a tenner out of my pocket and paid with that. Of course, the fact that were was a negative amount was not actually a problem in real life: I have an interest-free overdraft facility.
I asked Oliver (a friend from school who happened to be there) whether he thought I had made a wise investment with Lord Lamont. Oliver said I should try to withdraw my investment immediately. I began to sense that I was here to play poker, and that I was at the Victoria casino in London. I then worried that I didn't have nearly enough money: I could only withdraw around £190 from my card. I began to curse myself for not having asked my employer for the two weeks of wages which were meant to come between me and this (scheduled) cardroom visit. A fight started to break out in the corridor. I am not sure what the fight was about, though it was concluded when a short, cartoonish fellow headbutted the protagonist. I heard a narrator saying that the short man was dimwitted but always a good laugh. A rating of '5' appeared above him in a golden star, as if he was a unit of that strength in some sort of card-based war game. The appearance of the short man seemed to be a mixture of Wilfred from The Bash Street Kids and that short guy from Sid the Sexist. The bully had had a rating of '11', and the short guy had used a special tactic (headbutting) to overcome this numerical disparity.
I got involved in what can only be described as a form of poker-bingo. Everybody places their bets and each player is given a number of cards (I counted about 7 in the hand I was in). Then a special card is taken from a huge, separate deck and placed in the centre. This contains the community cards, so rather than actually using normal cards to create a flop, there are pre-created flops as if we were using bingo cards. My friend José (sitting to my left) had placed £3 down and had won the pot with a full house. I had only but down £1 but for some reason my KQJT9 straight was good enough to 'win the side-pot', which of course makes no sense in reality as if there would have been any side-pot it would have been between José and anyone else who staked more than a £1. I received my winnings in stacks of pennies (about 20 of them) and assorted silver. I was annoyed but amused. While the next hand was in progress I suddenly left and went across into another room.
This room was a bar, very similar to the Dirty Duck at the University of Warwick. I asked for a half-pint of coke, but he was having difficulty hearing me. I saw him pour half a pint of diet coke into a pint glass and then top it up with regular coke, as if he were preparing a bitter shandy only... with coke. He then asked for £3.60. Having left most of my coins on the gaming table I scrambled out my debit card. He said there was "-£1.15" on it, so I just whacked a tenner out of my pocket and paid with that. Of course, the fact that were was a negative amount was not actually a problem in real life: I have an interest-free overdraft facility.
I asked Oliver (a friend from school who happened to be there) whether he thought I had made a wise investment with Lord Lamont. Oliver said I should try to withdraw my investment immediately. I began to sense that I was here to play poker, and that I was at the Victoria casino in London. I then worried that I didn't have nearly enough money: I could only withdraw around £190 from my card. I began to curse myself for not having asked my employer for the two weeks of wages which were meant to come between me and this (scheduled) cardroom visit. A fight started to break out in the corridor. I am not sure what the fight was about, though it was concluded when a short, cartoonish fellow headbutted the protagonist. I heard a narrator saying that the short man was dimwitted but always a good laugh. A rating of '5' appeared above him in a golden star, as if he was a unit of that strength in some sort of card-based war game. The appearance of the short man seemed to be a mixture of Wilfred from The Bash Street Kids and that short guy from Sid the Sexist. The bully had had a rating of '11', and the short guy had used a special tactic (headbutting) to overcome this numerical disparity.
Then I woke up, around 20 minutes or so before my alarm.
Thursday, 13 January 2011
Oldham East and Saddleworth By-Election
Well, a couple of hours ago the polls opened for what will be the first parliamentary by-election since the formation of the Coalition government in May. There was, of course, the postponed Thirsk & Malton poll on the 27th of May, but by then the coalition dyanmics had yet to really come into play electorally speaking.
Here are the 2010 results for Oldham East and Saddleworth:
LAB - 14,186 (31.9%)
LIB - 14,083 (31.6%)
CON - 11,773 (26.4%)
(and others, although they are not numerically signficant)
A great deal of analysis has been done on this by-election and it is generally expected that Labour will win. The general trend of the opinion polls since the general election suggests the Labour vote nationally is up around 13% whereas the Liberal Democrat vote is down by around the same amount. Notably, the Conservative vote remains more or less unchanged.
Much has been made of local factors. The previous Labour MP, of course, had his result voided following a court ruling which showed that the Labour candidate had effectively told untruths about the Liberal Democrat candidate in his campaign literature - a factor which may have proved decisive given the extremely close result. I don't expect this will damage the Labour vote here too much, indeed, there has been some resentment at what is perceived as their result being decided by a distant court.
It is significant that the combined Liberal/Conservative vote here is as high as it is: 58% compared to Labour's 32%. Although these are pre-coalition figures, it does indicate that for Labour to guarantee victory they will have to shift a lot of these votes.
Despite the Conservatives' strong third-place performance here in 2010 it is widely expected that many Conservative voters will vote tactically, lending their vote to the Liberal Democrat candidate to stop Labour from winning.
I shall make a prediction:
LAB - 13,476 (46%)
LIB - 7,531 (26%)
CON - 4,538 (15%)
OTH - 3,837 (13%)
Turnout being roughly 40%.
Based on these figures, the old saying that this will be the 'first real test for the Coalition' is somewhat misleading, as it is not a test they are expected to pass. The expectation is with Labour, although this may harm them: first it may encourage even more tactical voting from Conservatives to boost the Libdem vote. Second, any increase in expectation will just make defeat all the more unstomachable. The Liberal Democrats will only be humiliated if they come third. Labour will be humiliated if they come second. The Tories... if they come fourth I suppose. Despite the BNP polling 11% here in 2001, there is no single significant fourth party presence here.
Polls close at 10pm and results are expected at 2am.
Also, we'll be expecting another by-election sometime early this year! The MP for Barnsley Central has stood down after admitting fraud over his expenses. He was elected as a Labour MP in 2010 with 47% of the vote, 30% more than the second place candidate. Consequently, it will be rather a different type of by-election to this one, and potentially less interesting. Oldham East and Saddleworth is rare in that it was a genuine three-way marginal in the General Election. Barnsley Central is a definitive Labour safe-seat and so there's not even much chance of a two-way scrap, let alone a three-way scrap. More signficant would be a by-election in a Tory held marginal (with Labour in second place): or better still, a Tory held marginal with the Liberal Democrats in 2nd and Labour in 3rd. Of course the next major electoral test (one whose date is non-negotiable) are the Scottish Parliamentary and Welsh Assembly elections in May, as well as the council elections of the same month.
Here are the 2010 results for Oldham East and Saddleworth:
LAB - 14,186 (31.9%)
LIB - 14,083 (31.6%)
CON - 11,773 (26.4%)
(and others, although they are not numerically signficant)
A great deal of analysis has been done on this by-election and it is generally expected that Labour will win. The general trend of the opinion polls since the general election suggests the Labour vote nationally is up around 13% whereas the Liberal Democrat vote is down by around the same amount. Notably, the Conservative vote remains more or less unchanged.
Much has been made of local factors. The previous Labour MP, of course, had his result voided following a court ruling which showed that the Labour candidate had effectively told untruths about the Liberal Democrat candidate in his campaign literature - a factor which may have proved decisive given the extremely close result. I don't expect this will damage the Labour vote here too much, indeed, there has been some resentment at what is perceived as their result being decided by a distant court.
It is significant that the combined Liberal/Conservative vote here is as high as it is: 58% compared to Labour's 32%. Although these are pre-coalition figures, it does indicate that for Labour to guarantee victory they will have to shift a lot of these votes.
Despite the Conservatives' strong third-place performance here in 2010 it is widely expected that many Conservative voters will vote tactically, lending their vote to the Liberal Democrat candidate to stop Labour from winning.
I shall make a prediction:
LAB - 13,476 (46%)
LIB - 7,531 (26%)
CON - 4,538 (15%)
OTH - 3,837 (13%)
Turnout being roughly 40%.
Based on these figures, the old saying that this will be the 'first real test for the Coalition' is somewhat misleading, as it is not a test they are expected to pass. The expectation is with Labour, although this may harm them: first it may encourage even more tactical voting from Conservatives to boost the Libdem vote. Second, any increase in expectation will just make defeat all the more unstomachable. The Liberal Democrats will only be humiliated if they come third. Labour will be humiliated if they come second. The Tories... if they come fourth I suppose. Despite the BNP polling 11% here in 2001, there is no single significant fourth party presence here.
Polls close at 10pm and results are expected at 2am.
Also, we'll be expecting another by-election sometime early this year! The MP for Barnsley Central has stood down after admitting fraud over his expenses. He was elected as a Labour MP in 2010 with 47% of the vote, 30% more than the second place candidate. Consequently, it will be rather a different type of by-election to this one, and potentially less interesting. Oldham East and Saddleworth is rare in that it was a genuine three-way marginal in the General Election. Barnsley Central is a definitive Labour safe-seat and so there's not even much chance of a two-way scrap, let alone a three-way scrap. More signficant would be a by-election in a Tory held marginal (with Labour in second place): or better still, a Tory held marginal with the Liberal Democrats in 2nd and Labour in 3rd. Of course the next major electoral test (one whose date is non-negotiable) are the Scottish Parliamentary and Welsh Assembly elections in May, as well as the council elections of the same month.
Thursday, 2 December 2010
Landslide
Saw a book at City Books in Hove today. Well, I saw many books. It was a bookshop after all. But while I was perusing the politics section I came across a title called "were you still up for Portillo?". I was extremely excited by this title. It refered to the 1997 election night in which Michael Portillo, then Defence Secretary, lost his seat on a huge swing, considered by many to be the greatest shock of the night and a key signifier to the scale of the Tory defeat. The loss of Portillo's seat was declared at about 3AM, and so "were you still up for Portillo?" became a leading question for people talking to eachother about the election night.
I take a great interest in general elections (more so than for politics itself) and so naturally I was keen to look into this book. I was disappointed, however, that rather than being a general assessment of the campaign, election itself, it was literally just a blow by blow account of the election night itself. Which is fair enough, because the title does imply that. I didn't buy a copy there, as I didn't want to pay £6 for a facsimile of the televised coverage, which I am able to watch on youtube for myself thanks to ajs41. However, there was enough insight and context in the book (from the excerpts I read in the store) and enough references to other networks' election night coverage to make it something I should like to read. So that's ordered from Amazon second hand for £1.28, a price so low it's almost reminiscent of the Tory seats won in 1997. And the scale of the snow outside is reminiscent of the Labour result - unprecedented, beyond the wildest forecast. In my garden I suspect there to be eight inches - it's slightly less significant elsewhere in town as much of it has been shovelled or salted. But in the park you can see it drifting somewhat, snowdunes.
Hopefully this weather does not affect my travel tomorrow - I am trying to get to Bristol. Contrary to my initial impressions, my investigations have revealed that the journey from Paddington to Bristol might be easier than my journey from Brighton to Victoria.
I take a great interest in general elections (more so than for politics itself) and so naturally I was keen to look into this book. I was disappointed, however, that rather than being a general assessment of the campaign, election itself, it was literally just a blow by blow account of the election night itself. Which is fair enough, because the title does imply that. I didn't buy a copy there, as I didn't want to pay £6 for a facsimile of the televised coverage, which I am able to watch on youtube for myself thanks to ajs41. However, there was enough insight and context in the book (from the excerpts I read in the store) and enough references to other networks' election night coverage to make it something I should like to read. So that's ordered from Amazon second hand for £1.28, a price so low it's almost reminiscent of the Tory seats won in 1997. And the scale of the snow outside is reminiscent of the Labour result - unprecedented, beyond the wildest forecast. In my garden I suspect there to be eight inches - it's slightly less significant elsewhere in town as much of it has been shovelled or salted. But in the park you can see it drifting somewhat, snowdunes.
Hopefully this weather does not affect my travel tomorrow - I am trying to get to Bristol. Contrary to my initial impressions, my investigations have revealed that the journey from Paddington to Bristol might be easier than my journey from Brighton to Victoria.
Wednesday, 10 November 2010
Reading
When I got back from Peru in late October last year I started taking a written record of the books I read - a book log. Admittedly I have never been an avid reader although the medium of books has grown on me ever since leaving university.
The list is now just over one year old. Below are only the books I have finished - there are a few entries which have a 'started' date but no 'finished' date which will not be appearing here. This is either because I am currently reading them (and hence have not finished them) or because I started them a while ago but abandoned them after a few pages/chapters. Well, abandoned is perhaps the wrong word - I intend to return to all of them, in time.
The list is now just over one year old. Below are only the books I have finished - there are a few entries which have a 'started' date but no 'finished' date which will not be appearing here. This is either because I am currently reading them (and hence have not finished them) or because I started them a while ago but abandoned them after a few pages/chapters. Well, abandoned is perhaps the wrong word - I intend to return to all of them, in time.
The List (in order of start date)
Stanislaw Lem - The Star Diaries (1971)
Morris Kline - Mathematics in Western Culture (1953)
Jonathan Swift - Gulliver's Travels (1726)
Alistair Cooke - American Journey (1945)
Robin Shelton - Two hundred poems from the Greek Anthology (1971)
Robert Harris - Imperium (2006)
Anthony Seldon - Major: A Political Life (1997)*
Jo Swinnerton - The London Pocket Companion (2008)
Robert Beckman - Crashes (1988)
Alistair Cooke - Letter from America (2004)
Giles MacDonogh - Frederick the Great (1999)
Liz Fisher, John Couruts - The Bluffer's Guide to Accountancy (2006)
Christopher Hibbert - George III (1988)
Robert Eastaway, Jeremy Wyndham - Why do Buses Come in Threes? (1999)
Stanislaw Lem - Memoirs Found in a Bathtub (1971)
G. Ward Price - I Know These Dictators (1937)
Henrik Ibsen - Hedda Gabler (1890)
Richard Sheridan - The Rivals (1775)
Stanislaw Lem - The Futorological Congress (1974)
Jorge Luis Borges - The Book of Sand (1975)
*Did not read in full. 744 pages on one man's career would have been rather a lot - I was primarily interested in the elections (both as a prospective parliamentary candidate and as Prime Minister) rather than the workings of policy units.
Thursday, 28 October 2010
Am going to Rome for a week in mid-December so have resumed my Italian studies, having jetissoned the language nearly a year ago when it was revealed that I would not be going to Rome last December. Have been enjoying studying it and testing myself on it a lot. It reminds me of maths (which along with history was my favourite subject as far back as I remember) - learning the building blocks and then using these to build and solve more complicated linguistic equations. It's going to be tough to learn the whole book before mid-December but I have the enthusiasm and patience for it now. That and a cause. I want to be able to spend as much of my time in Rome by myself so I can explore at my own pace (which would probalby involve walking around from dawn till dusk free from the contstraints of other peoples' tendency to fatigue) and attempt a serious piece of journalistic tourism, which would match the Peru Report in richness of detail but would contain no discussion of family politics - I have no family in Rome. Naturally, if I am to spend a lot of time by myself exploring a good knowledge of Italian would be helpful. And this book will give me a good knowledge, provided I test myself regularly and do not slack on learning vocabulary or practicing oral.
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