In seven weeks time we shall wake up with a brand new parliament, and perhaps a brand new government.
I've seen a lot of people posting their rather naive predictions as to what the general election result will be.
Well, I don't suppose mine will be any less naive.
Anyway, I shall make an estimate of the swings between the various parties and use this as a basis for my result.
In 2005 the share of the vote for the parties in Great Britain (excluding Northern Ireland) was as follows:
Labour: 36.20%
Conservatives: 33.24%
Liberal Democrats: 22.64%
Others: 7.92%
It should be acknowledged that the main impetus for the Lib Dem's high level of support in '05 was their opposition to the Iraq War. Well, there is no such impetus now, and I see no reason to expect they will do any better. LIBERAL DEMOCRATS DOWN 4%
The Others support will rise by the same amount - while I don't believe any extra 4th parties will be represented in the new Parliament, their over all collective vote will increase, especially with UKIP and the BNP fielding so many more candidates than last time. OTHERS UP 4%
As for the Labour/Tory swing, I see no reason why it should be too dramatic. Sure there is dissatisfaction with the incumbent party, but the Tories do not seem to be offering a firm alternative, and I honestly think it's a little too late for the Tories to do anything about this.
Nevertheless, I think a decent swing is likely. I was torn between 4% and 5%, so I will just go with 4.5%.
LABOUR DOWN 4.5%
TORIES UP 4.5%
This would mean new support figures of:
Labour: 31.7%
Tories: 37.74%
Libdems: 18.64%
Others: 11.92%
Obviously it seems odd to combine precise figures (05) with such rough estimates, but there's no real need for me to round up to the nearest percentage point either
.
Based on a uniform national swing, these support figures would yield the following result in terms of seats.
Tories: 295
Labour: 277
Libdems: 47
Others: 13 (plus 18 from Northern Ireland)
Thus no party would make it past the winning post of 325, the number of seats required to form a majority government, by defintion having more than half the seats in the Commons.
Yes, I think it really is that close. Although the Tories are likely to do better in the marginal seats than the Uniform National Swing suggests, this might only amount to a dozen or so extra seats. But we'll take this dozen into account and predict the Tories 307 seats.
The polls fluctuate all the time, and different pollsters offer varying figures, caused not just by natural variation but also influenced by the polling methods. My figures are based more on my insticts than the polls, though it so happens that my own support figures are not too different from the current averages.
I enjoyed teasing my father about the possibility of the Conservatives having the most seats but Labour and the Liberal Democrats forming a coalition government, by whose end in 2015 the country would be ruined. But I really don't blame people for not having an awful lot of faith in the Tories.
Still, though I stick to my prediction I think it's fair to say that it's anyone's game, and to be honest the game hasn't really started yet. The board has been layed out and the player tokens have been removed from the box, but nobody has rolled a single dice!
I will update my prediction every Friday morning in the run up to the general election. I may change it from week to week, I may be satisfied and leave it unchanged. My aim is not to reflect simply the current state of the polls, but just my general aggregate perception of whether there is an "air of change". For you see, that is what it's all about. For Conservatives to win they need to get enough people who voted Labour or Liberal Democrat last time to vote for the Tories instead.
Here is a list of historical swings for those who are interested (God knows I am).
The summary swings have been rounded to the nearest half.
1945 - Labour Victory - Landslide (145 seats)
Labour: +11.7%
Conservative: -11.6%
Liberal: +2.3%
SWING: CON to LAB: 11.5%
1950 - Labour Victory - Wafer Thin Majority (5 seats)
Labour: -3.6%
Conservative: +3.8%
Liberal: +0.1%
SWING: LAB to CON: 3.5%
1951 - Conservative Victory - Small Majority (16 seats)
Labour: +2.7%
Conservative: +8.0%
Liberal: -8.1%
SWING: LAB to CON: 2.5%
1955 - Conservative Victory - Increased Majority (60 seats)
Labour: -2.4%
Conservative: +1.7%
Liberal: +0.2%
SWING: LAB to CON: 2%
1959 - Conservative Victory - Substantial Majority (100 seats)
Labour: -2.6%
Conservative: -0.3%
Liberal: +3.2%
SWING: LAB to CON: 1%
1964 - Labour Victory - Wafer-thin Majority (4 seats)
Labour: +0.3%
Conservative: -6.0%
Liberal: +5.3%
SWING: CON to LAB: 3%
1966 - Labour Victory - Substantial Majority (96 seats)
Labour: +3.9%
Conservative: -1.5%
Liberal: -2.7%
SWING: CON to LAB: 2.5%
1970 - Conservative Victory - Comfortable Majority (31 seats)
Labour: -4.9%
Conservative: +4.5%
Liberal: -1.0%
SWING: LAB to CON: 4.5%
1974 (Feb) - Hung Parliament - Narrow Labour Lead
Labour: -5.9%
Conservative: -8.5%
Liberal: +11.8%
SWING: CON to LAB: 1.5%
1974 (Oct) - Labour Victory - Tiny Majority (3 seats)
Labour: +2.0%
Conservative: -2.1%
Liberal: -1.0%
SWING: CON to LAB: 1%
1979 - Conservative Victory - Workable Majority (43 seats)
Labour: -2.3%
Conservatives: +8.1%
Liberal: -4.5%
SWING: LAB to CON: 5%
1983 - Conservative Victory - Landslide (144 seats)
Labour: -9.3%
Conservatives: -1.5%
Alliance: +11.6%
SWING: LAB to CON: 4%
1987 - Conservative Victory - Comfortable Majority (102 seats)
Labour: +3.2%
Conservatives: -0.2%
Alliance: -2.8%
SWING: CON to LAB: 1.5%
1992 - Conservative Victory - Small Majority (20 seats)
Labour: +3.6%
Conservatives: -0.3%
Lib Dem: -4.8%
SWING: CON to LAB: 2%
1997 - Labour Victory - Landslide (179 seats)
Labour: +8.8%
Conservatives: -11.2%
Lib Dem: -1.0%
SWING: CON to LAB: 10%
2001 - Labour Victory - Landslide (167 seats)
Labour: -2.5%
Conservatives: +1%
Lib Dem: +1.5%
SWING: LAB to CON: 2%
2005 - Labour Victory - Comfortable majority (66 seats)
Labour: -5.5%
Conservatives: +0.6%
Lib Dem: +3.7%
SWING: LAB to CON: 3%
Well, you can see that a 4.5% swing is actually fairly large when considered historically. That doesn't mean it's impossible - it just means that the level of disatisfaction with the government and level of enthusiasm for the opposition has to be pretty tangible.
This week's prediction: Conservative Short of a Majority by 18 seats.
I've seen a lot of people posting their rather naive predictions as to what the general election result will be.
Well, I don't suppose mine will be any less naive.
Anyway, I shall make an estimate of the swings between the various parties and use this as a basis for my result.
In 2005 the share of the vote for the parties in Great Britain (excluding Northern Ireland) was as follows:
Labour: 36.20%
Conservatives: 33.24%
Liberal Democrats: 22.64%
Others: 7.92%
It should be acknowledged that the main impetus for the Lib Dem's high level of support in '05 was their opposition to the Iraq War. Well, there is no such impetus now, and I see no reason to expect they will do any better. LIBERAL DEMOCRATS DOWN 4%
The Others support will rise by the same amount - while I don't believe any extra 4th parties will be represented in the new Parliament, their over all collective vote will increase, especially with UKIP and the BNP fielding so many more candidates than last time. OTHERS UP 4%
As for the Labour/Tory swing, I see no reason why it should be too dramatic. Sure there is dissatisfaction with the incumbent party, but the Tories do not seem to be offering a firm alternative, and I honestly think it's a little too late for the Tories to do anything about this.
Nevertheless, I think a decent swing is likely. I was torn between 4% and 5%, so I will just go with 4.5%.
LABOUR DOWN 4.5%
TORIES UP 4.5%
This would mean new support figures of:
Labour: 31.7%
Tories: 37.74%
Libdems: 18.64%
Others: 11.92%
Obviously it seems odd to combine precise figures (05) with such rough estimates, but there's no real need for me to round up to the nearest percentage point either
.
Based on a uniform national swing, these support figures would yield the following result in terms of seats.
Tories: 295
Labour: 277
Libdems: 47
Others: 13 (plus 18 from Northern Ireland)
Thus no party would make it past the winning post of 325, the number of seats required to form a majority government, by defintion having more than half the seats in the Commons.
Yes, I think it really is that close. Although the Tories are likely to do better in the marginal seats than the Uniform National Swing suggests, this might only amount to a dozen or so extra seats. But we'll take this dozen into account and predict the Tories 307 seats.
The polls fluctuate all the time, and different pollsters offer varying figures, caused not just by natural variation but also influenced by the polling methods. My figures are based more on my insticts than the polls, though it so happens that my own support figures are not too different from the current averages.
I enjoyed teasing my father about the possibility of the Conservatives having the most seats but Labour and the Liberal Democrats forming a coalition government, by whose end in 2015 the country would be ruined. But I really don't blame people for not having an awful lot of faith in the Tories.
Still, though I stick to my prediction I think it's fair to say that it's anyone's game, and to be honest the game hasn't really started yet. The board has been layed out and the player tokens have been removed from the box, but nobody has rolled a single dice!
I will update my prediction every Friday morning in the run up to the general election. I may change it from week to week, I may be satisfied and leave it unchanged. My aim is not to reflect simply the current state of the polls, but just my general aggregate perception of whether there is an "air of change". For you see, that is what it's all about. For Conservatives to win they need to get enough people who voted Labour or Liberal Democrat last time to vote for the Tories instead.
Here is a list of historical swings for those who are interested (God knows I am).
The summary swings have been rounded to the nearest half.
1945 - Labour Victory - Landslide (145 seats)
Labour: +11.7%
Conservative: -11.6%
Liberal: +2.3%
SWING: CON to LAB: 11.5%
1950 - Labour Victory - Wafer Thin Majority (5 seats)
Labour: -3.6%
Conservative: +3.8%
Liberal: +0.1%
SWING: LAB to CON: 3.5%
1951 - Conservative Victory - Small Majority (16 seats)
Labour: +2.7%
Conservative: +8.0%
Liberal: -8.1%
SWING: LAB to CON: 2.5%
1955 - Conservative Victory - Increased Majority (60 seats)
Labour: -2.4%
Conservative: +1.7%
Liberal: +0.2%
SWING: LAB to CON: 2%
1959 - Conservative Victory - Substantial Majority (100 seats)
Labour: -2.6%
Conservative: -0.3%
Liberal: +3.2%
SWING: LAB to CON: 1%
1964 - Labour Victory - Wafer-thin Majority (4 seats)
Labour: +0.3%
Conservative: -6.0%
Liberal: +5.3%
SWING: CON to LAB: 3%
1966 - Labour Victory - Substantial Majority (96 seats)
Labour: +3.9%
Conservative: -1.5%
Liberal: -2.7%
SWING: CON to LAB: 2.5%
1970 - Conservative Victory - Comfortable Majority (31 seats)
Labour: -4.9%
Conservative: +4.5%
Liberal: -1.0%
SWING: LAB to CON: 4.5%
1974 (Feb) - Hung Parliament - Narrow Labour Lead
Labour: -5.9%
Conservative: -8.5%
Liberal: +11.8%
SWING: CON to LAB: 1.5%
1974 (Oct) - Labour Victory - Tiny Majority (3 seats)
Labour: +2.0%
Conservative: -2.1%
Liberal: -1.0%
SWING: CON to LAB: 1%
1979 - Conservative Victory - Workable Majority (43 seats)
Labour: -2.3%
Conservatives: +8.1%
Liberal: -4.5%
SWING: LAB to CON: 5%
1983 - Conservative Victory - Landslide (144 seats)
Labour: -9.3%
Conservatives: -1.5%
Alliance: +11.6%
SWING: LAB to CON: 4%
1987 - Conservative Victory - Comfortable Majority (102 seats)
Labour: +3.2%
Conservatives: -0.2%
Alliance: -2.8%
SWING: CON to LAB: 1.5%
1992 - Conservative Victory - Small Majority (20 seats)
Labour: +3.6%
Conservatives: -0.3%
Lib Dem: -4.8%
SWING: CON to LAB: 2%
1997 - Labour Victory - Landslide (179 seats)
Labour: +8.8%
Conservatives: -11.2%
Lib Dem: -1.0%
SWING: CON to LAB: 10%
2001 - Labour Victory - Landslide (167 seats)
Labour: -2.5%
Conservatives: +1%
Lib Dem: +1.5%
SWING: LAB to CON: 2%
2005 - Labour Victory - Comfortable majority (66 seats)
Labour: -5.5%
Conservatives: +0.6%
Lib Dem: +3.7%
SWING: LAB to CON: 3%
Well, you can see that a 4.5% swing is actually fairly large when considered historically. That doesn't mean it's impossible - it just means that the level of disatisfaction with the government and level of enthusiasm for the opposition has to be pretty tangible.
This week's prediction: Conservative Short of a Majority by 18 seats.
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