10/05/10 - 3km, 19 minutes (9.5km/hr)
A few weeks ago I watched the BBC coverage of Election 2005, which had been helpfully uploaded by a fellow anorak. What struck me the most was how little of it I remembered. This is party due to the fact that election nights, by their very nature, seldom follow an easily memorable narrative. Also, I believe I often switched between the BBC and other networks. Moreover, I had gone to sleep at around 2.30am, shortly after the Hove result, and so did not witness many of the more dramatic results, which generally occured between 3am and 6am. I did, of course, have school the next morning, and given that I usually got up at 6am on school days, I would have been able either to watch the whole election or sleep. Not both.
This time there were no such constraints, and I followed the election from the exit poll all the way to the last result, give or take an hour or two to sleep and another hour or two to go out on the Friday afternoon.
For me the excitement began years ago. Ever since the American Presidential election in 2004 I have kept a keen eye on electoral politics. It wasn't so much the issues and manifestos that caught my eye, but rather the numbers and colourful displays, and the element of raw competition. After all, it's not very often someone gets the chance to decide who governs them.
As for this election, it was in February that I really got fired up. I discovered the UK Polling Report website and simultaneously got hold of the implied 2005 results on Electoral Calculus. I started following the polls and making my own predictions.
The tensest point of the campaign was at the end of February. On a train back from London I read a leading article in the Times which discussed the possibility that Gordon Brown was still on track to win the election. This was on the basis of a poll which showed the Conservatives on 37% and Labour on 35% - the electoral bias giving Labour a substantial lead in seats based on this poll.
The strangest point of the campaign was the Lib Dem surge following the first debate, and the for the next week the three parties were all polling within an uncomfortable narrow range.
The most anticipated point actually followed the campaign - the BBC/ITN/SKY exit poll announced at 10pm once the polling stations had closed.
CONSERVATIVES: 307
LABOUR: 255
LIBDEMS: 59
I was in my parents room at the time. We were fairly cheerful about the result. I took especial cheer in the fact that the Libdems were forecasted to lose seats, although at the time I did not really believe it. After all, they had been polling around 26/27% all the way to polling day - we might rightfully have expected a Lib Dem squeeze but losing seats? I assumed the Lib Dem figure would end up around ten or fifteen seats higher, and Labour down by the same amount. Though I acknowledged that the 307 for the Tories was a good result (compared to what it might have been) I was still quietly confident that by the end of the night the figure would be enough for the Conservatives to either govern as a minority or just skim a majority.
The first result came at around ten to eleven. Good old Sunderland South. Or I should day Houghton & Sunderland South, as it is now known after boundary changes.
A few weeks ago I watched the BBC coverage of Election 2005, which had been helpfully uploaded by a fellow anorak. What struck me the most was how little of it I remembered. This is party due to the fact that election nights, by their very nature, seldom follow an easily memorable narrative. Also, I believe I often switched between the BBC and other networks. Moreover, I had gone to sleep at around 2.30am, shortly after the Hove result, and so did not witness many of the more dramatic results, which generally occured between 3am and 6am. I did, of course, have school the next morning, and given that I usually got up at 6am on school days, I would have been able either to watch the whole election or sleep. Not both.
This time there were no such constraints, and I followed the election from the exit poll all the way to the last result, give or take an hour or two to sleep and another hour or two to go out on the Friday afternoon.
For me the excitement began years ago. Ever since the American Presidential election in 2004 I have kept a keen eye on electoral politics. It wasn't so much the issues and manifestos that caught my eye, but rather the numbers and colourful displays, and the element of raw competition. After all, it's not very often someone gets the chance to decide who governs them.
As for this election, it was in February that I really got fired up. I discovered the UK Polling Report website and simultaneously got hold of the implied 2005 results on Electoral Calculus. I started following the polls and making my own predictions.
The tensest point of the campaign was at the end of February. On a train back from London I read a leading article in the Times which discussed the possibility that Gordon Brown was still on track to win the election. This was on the basis of a poll which showed the Conservatives on 37% and Labour on 35% - the electoral bias giving Labour a substantial lead in seats based on this poll.
The strangest point of the campaign was the Lib Dem surge following the first debate, and the for the next week the three parties were all polling within an uncomfortable narrow range.
The most anticipated point actually followed the campaign - the BBC/ITN/SKY exit poll announced at 10pm once the polling stations had closed.
CONSERVATIVES: 307
LABOUR: 255
LIBDEMS: 59
I was in my parents room at the time. We were fairly cheerful about the result. I took especial cheer in the fact that the Libdems were forecasted to lose seats, although at the time I did not really believe it. After all, they had been polling around 26/27% all the way to polling day - we might rightfully have expected a Lib Dem squeeze but losing seats? I assumed the Lib Dem figure would end up around ten or fifteen seats higher, and Labour down by the same amount. Though I acknowledged that the 307 for the Tories was a good result (compared to what it might have been) I was still quietly confident that by the end of the night the figure would be enough for the Conservatives to either govern as a minority or just skim a majority.
The first result came at around ten to eleven. Good old Sunderland South. Or I should day Houghton & Sunderland South, as it is now known after boundary changes.
8.4% SWING from LAB to CON
Then came Washington & Sunderland West.
11.6% SWING from LAB to CON
Then came Sunderland Central.
4.8% SWING from LAB to CON
A mixed set of results but on balance they showed a huge swing to the Conservatives.
Then came the first Conservative gain.
Kingswood
9.4% SWING from LAB to CON
At this point I was laughing. I got a text from Mike saying "Yeh reckon you've won. Congrats."
Then came Battersea - GAIN.
6.5% SWING from LAB to CON
But over the next few hours there were far fewer of these massive swings.
Telford - LABOUR HOLD.
6.3% SWING from LAB to CON.
Tooting - LABOUR HOLD.
3.6% SWING from LAB to CON.
It was suddenly all becoming a bit uncertain, and the results were coming in very slowly. Birmingham Edgbaston, a symbolic marginal taken by Labour in 1997, had yet to declare. I was impatient for this result, as it was meant to have been the very first marginal to declare.
The Liberal/Conservative marginals proved a fun fight, and the ousting of Lembit Opik in Montgomeryshire on a 13.2% swing to the Tories came as a big surprise.
Even after 150 results there was no clear picture of what was going on, so divergent were the results around the country. But the swing towards the Conservative seemed patchy rather than decisive, and I began to concede that a Conservative majority was no longer a realistic possibility.
This was confirmed when Birmingham Edgbaston finally declared in the early hours. It was a hold for Labour's Gisela Stuart. Her vote had decreased by 2.5%, but the Tories vote had also decreased by 1.5%. So in one of the key marginals, the swing was only half a percent.
It seemed Labour were doing better in areas with high ethnic minority populations. Much of the Muslim vote had been lost to the Liberal Democrats during the 2005 election over the Iraq War was now coming back to Labour, has the hard feelings over the war had more or less faded away.
It was a messy, slow few hours. Nevertheless, I was still sufficiently enthused to stay awake. In any case, there would no way I would have been able to sleep while the three Brighton seats were still in the balance.
Hove declared at some time around dawn. The BBC didn't go into the nitty gritty of the result as it was by this stage one of a string of many fairly normal, marginal gains. The Conservatives took Hove but on a disappointing swing of 2.4%. The Tory vote only went up by 0.3%, the Labour vote going down by 4.5%. The Libdem vote increased by a surprising 4.6%. Hove had finally returned blue, but only with a majority of 1868, meaning that next time Hove will be a marginal for the foruth election in a row. (I do not count 1997 - though Hove was gained by Labour then it was nowhere near marginal nominally - there just happened to be a massive swing.)
Brighton Kemptown came next. A Tory gain, more decisive at 4%. It was a fairly equal swing too: Labour down 4.1%, Conservatives up 3.8%. However, like Hove, the new majority is a wafer thin 1328. The Trade Union and Socialist Party Candidate Dave Hill, whom I wrote about on an earlier post, only got 194 votes, roughly 0.5% of the total cast.
Brighton Pavilion, having been identified by many as a place where the Greens had a chance of winning, was shown on television. My mother came in as the result was announced (just before 6AM) so she saw it too.
Green - 16,238
Labour - 14,986
Tory - 12,275
Libdems - 7,159
UKIP - 948
And a few independents.
I was pretty pleased at the result. I didn't really think the Conservatives had a strong chance in this seat, and was glad that a Green victory helped wipe Labour clean off the South Coast. But I was also glad for the Greens, and for Brighton. The result sort of confirmed the fact that Brighton isn't like other places, and that only in a city as 'bohemian' as Brighton could a result like this come to pass.
Warwick and Leamington was one of the later declarations, turning Conservative on an 8.8% swing. It had originally been claimed that the turnout in this constituency was around 84%, but for some reason the current figure on display on the BBC is only 71%. Neighbouring Kenilworth reported a record turnout of 81.2%, but again I am doubtful as to the figure.
From around 7-11am I was half asleep in bed, watching some of the remaining results trickling in. Westmorland and Lonsdale declared at some point during this slumber, and aside from the 11.1% swing from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats, there was also a 5.6% drop in Labour's vote, collapsing to a measly 2.2%, the lowest Labour share of the vote in the country.
But Labour's vote across the country had not collapsed. Though 29% was the lowest figure since the days of Michael Foot, it was still enough for them to hold onto well over 250 seats. The exit poll had proved correct, even more accurate than the one in 2005.
As for my own prediction, I was right about the Conservative and Labour share of the vote. However, like most pollsters I overestimated the Libdem share by around 3%, and underestimated the Others share by around 3% too.
My seat number predictions were correct for the Tories ('300+') but I expected the Libdems to make gains of Labour, which on balance they did not, so my prediction for those two parties are out by around fifteen or twenty. I was right about Con/Lib marginals being bitter, and right about their being no clear leader between the two. But the volatility surprised me a little.
My assumption that turnout would go up by around 8% or so (based on a 20% increase from last times figures - I hope you understand the difference between a percent of 61% compared to a percent of 100) proved incorrect - turnout only went up by about 4%. Perhaps this had a lot to do with unsure voters not making a decision in the end, or with Libdem supporters failing to show up.
For Hove, my prediction of a Conservative gain was correct, but little else was. I was right about Kemptown (though expected a bigger swing) and was right about the Greens winning Pavilion. I was also right about the Libdem vote going down in Pavilion.
But I am completely unable to predict what will happen in Westminster over the next few days.
Then came Washington & Sunderland West.
11.6% SWING from LAB to CON
Then came Sunderland Central.
4.8% SWING from LAB to CON
A mixed set of results but on balance they showed a huge swing to the Conservatives.
Then came the first Conservative gain.
Kingswood
9.4% SWING from LAB to CON
At this point I was laughing. I got a text from Mike saying "Yeh reckon you've won. Congrats."
Then came Battersea - GAIN.
6.5% SWING from LAB to CON
But over the next few hours there were far fewer of these massive swings.
Telford - LABOUR HOLD.
6.3% SWING from LAB to CON.
Tooting - LABOUR HOLD.
3.6% SWING from LAB to CON.
It was suddenly all becoming a bit uncertain, and the results were coming in very slowly. Birmingham Edgbaston, a symbolic marginal taken by Labour in 1997, had yet to declare. I was impatient for this result, as it was meant to have been the very first marginal to declare.
The Liberal/Conservative marginals proved a fun fight, and the ousting of Lembit Opik in Montgomeryshire on a 13.2% swing to the Tories came as a big surprise.
Even after 150 results there was no clear picture of what was going on, so divergent were the results around the country. But the swing towards the Conservative seemed patchy rather than decisive, and I began to concede that a Conservative majority was no longer a realistic possibility.
This was confirmed when Birmingham Edgbaston finally declared in the early hours. It was a hold for Labour's Gisela Stuart. Her vote had decreased by 2.5%, but the Tories vote had also decreased by 1.5%. So in one of the key marginals, the swing was only half a percent.
It seemed Labour were doing better in areas with high ethnic minority populations. Much of the Muslim vote had been lost to the Liberal Democrats during the 2005 election over the Iraq War was now coming back to Labour, has the hard feelings over the war had more or less faded away.
It was a messy, slow few hours. Nevertheless, I was still sufficiently enthused to stay awake. In any case, there would no way I would have been able to sleep while the three Brighton seats were still in the balance.
Hove declared at some time around dawn. The BBC didn't go into the nitty gritty of the result as it was by this stage one of a string of many fairly normal, marginal gains. The Conservatives took Hove but on a disappointing swing of 2.4%. The Tory vote only went up by 0.3%, the Labour vote going down by 4.5%. The Libdem vote increased by a surprising 4.6%. Hove had finally returned blue, but only with a majority of 1868, meaning that next time Hove will be a marginal for the foruth election in a row. (I do not count 1997 - though Hove was gained by Labour then it was nowhere near marginal nominally - there just happened to be a massive swing.)
Brighton Kemptown came next. A Tory gain, more decisive at 4%. It was a fairly equal swing too: Labour down 4.1%, Conservatives up 3.8%. However, like Hove, the new majority is a wafer thin 1328. The Trade Union and Socialist Party Candidate Dave Hill, whom I wrote about on an earlier post, only got 194 votes, roughly 0.5% of the total cast.
Brighton Pavilion, having been identified by many as a place where the Greens had a chance of winning, was shown on television. My mother came in as the result was announced (just before 6AM) so she saw it too.
Green - 16,238
Labour - 14,986
Tory - 12,275
Libdems - 7,159
UKIP - 948
And a few independents.
I was pretty pleased at the result. I didn't really think the Conservatives had a strong chance in this seat, and was glad that a Green victory helped wipe Labour clean off the South Coast. But I was also glad for the Greens, and for Brighton. The result sort of confirmed the fact that Brighton isn't like other places, and that only in a city as 'bohemian' as Brighton could a result like this come to pass.
Warwick and Leamington was one of the later declarations, turning Conservative on an 8.8% swing. It had originally been claimed that the turnout in this constituency was around 84%, but for some reason the current figure on display on the BBC is only 71%. Neighbouring Kenilworth reported a record turnout of 81.2%, but again I am doubtful as to the figure.
From around 7-11am I was half asleep in bed, watching some of the remaining results trickling in. Westmorland and Lonsdale declared at some point during this slumber, and aside from the 11.1% swing from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats, there was also a 5.6% drop in Labour's vote, collapsing to a measly 2.2%, the lowest Labour share of the vote in the country.
But Labour's vote across the country had not collapsed. Though 29% was the lowest figure since the days of Michael Foot, it was still enough for them to hold onto well over 250 seats. The exit poll had proved correct, even more accurate than the one in 2005.
As for my own prediction, I was right about the Conservative and Labour share of the vote. However, like most pollsters I overestimated the Libdem share by around 3%, and underestimated the Others share by around 3% too.
My seat number predictions were correct for the Tories ('300+') but I expected the Libdems to make gains of Labour, which on balance they did not, so my prediction for those two parties are out by around fifteen or twenty. I was right about Con/Lib marginals being bitter, and right about their being no clear leader between the two. But the volatility surprised me a little.
My assumption that turnout would go up by around 8% or so (based on a 20% increase from last times figures - I hope you understand the difference between a percent of 61% compared to a percent of 100) proved incorrect - turnout only went up by about 4%. Perhaps this had a lot to do with unsure voters not making a decision in the end, or with Libdem supporters failing to show up.
For Hove, my prediction of a Conservative gain was correct, but little else was. I was right about Kemptown (though expected a bigger swing) and was right about the Greens winning Pavilion. I was also right about the Libdem vote going down in Pavilion.
But I am completely unable to predict what will happen in Westminster over the next few days.
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