Aside from the usual caveats (there are still a load of undecided voters, polls can be wrong... etc etc) it's time for me to make a final prediction.
SHARE OF THE VOTE
Conservatives: 36%
Labour: 29%
Liberal Democrats: 26%
(Others: 9%)
How this will plan out into seats in The Commons?
Well, I reckon Tories will get 300+, but won't guess any further than that. The swing in the marginals really will make a signifiicant difference. I suspect the Liberal Democrat vote will get squeezed a little and that the Labour Party still has enough core supporters to avoid electoral wipeout. That said, as I project the swing from Labour to the Tories to be over 5% (and a similar Labour to Liberal swing) there will be a large number of seats changing hands, and I expect Labour to have somewhere around 230 seats. As for the Liberal Democrats, I speculate that the bulk of their gains (which may number a dozen or two dozen) will be off Labour, as they were in 2005. The Conservative/Liberal marginals are a very different ball game. The way I see it, the Liberal Democrats are fighting two seperate elections - one against Labour and one against the Conservatives. I expect the Yellow/Red battlefront to be a lot more bloody than the Yellow/Blue battlefront. That does not mean to say the Lib/Con marginals aren't bitterly fought - they are, very. However, I don't see a significant swing occuring one way or the other.
I won't make predictions for individual seats because I really don't have that much information on which to base my judgements. However, I will make a full prediction for Hove
n.b. I have assumed a 20% increase in turnout
Hove - CON GAIN
CON: 21,000
LAB: 16,500
LIB: 11,000
GREEN: 4,500
Brighton Kemptown I suspect will fall almost as easily as Hove
Though it is tempting to be constantly wary of 'surprise result', I basically think that seats like Hove and Kemptown will just be sweeped by the Tory Brush no matter how much dust Labour piles there.
Brighton Pavilion is a little more interesting. A lot more interesting, really. And unlike my good pal Aidan who made a £5 bet (Even odds against a friend) that the Greens will not win Pavilion, I think the Greens will win. The way the trends are panning out it seems this is a genuine three way contest. The Labour vote will decline, but it really depends whether their ex-supporters go to Greens of the Conservatives. But I also expect, crucially, the Liberal Democrat contingent (they came fourth in 2005) to be inclined to vote tactically. However, this could mean anything - Vote Green to stop Labour from winning, Vote Green to stop the Tories from winning, vote Tory to stop Labour from winning... et cetera.
The count itself will be conducted at the Brighton Centre, so I have heard. All three seats will be counted and, presumably, announced there. The declarations are expected at around 3.30AM. Though by then we should have a good idea how the Tories are doing in the marginals (and effectively how decisive the Tory gains in Hove and Kemptown are) I don't think any result will give us much of a clue what's going on in Pavilion.
Exciting though it would be, I don't think I'll go to the count myself. It would just take up too much time and feel a little lonely once the result is announced. I'd rather be in the good company of David Dimbleby and co. It's a shame I'm no longer at university - that would be a great place to watch the election.
...or would it? I watched the first parts of the American presidential election (2008) at Warwick Student's Union, but everyone there was so loud and hysterical (particularly the Obama contingent, of whom 95% of the atendees were formed) that we couldn't really hear the punditry. I left before any results came out and watched at home instead right up until the 4AM victory.
It's 1AM now. I was thinking of getting up early and making an early visit to the polling station. However, I probably shouldn't offend my circadian rhythms any further then they will be already - I am planning to watch the entire election night coverage right up until dawn by which time 90% of the results should be in. If it really becomes a nailbiter (which well it might) I'll make the effort to stay up that much longer. Maybe I'll fall asleep with the TV on.
Tomorrow is Thursday. I expect to vote either immediately before lunch or immediately after. I expect it to be a pub lunch washed down with a bitter shandy or two. I do have some work to do in the afternoon, but that shouldn't take more than about 3 hours at most (I dare say) and so I will be left with plenty of time to walk around town to see what the voting activity is like and where the polling stations are. I'll try to pop by the Brighton Centre too, not that I really expect to see much. All I really want to know is just how shrouded in mystery the count is. It's not the sort of thing you would expect them to publicize, but it is nevertheless a logistically impressive, visable event, and for counts to be held behind lock doors would simply not be tolerated in this country.
But where is this country heading? Well, I'll guess I'll have to stick to my prediction I made a few paragraphs ago. CONSERVATIVE MARGINAL VICTORY - not necessarily a majority, but they ought to win over 300 seats and ought to poll a fairly decisive lead in the votes.
And one of those votes will be from me.
But I won't tell you how to vote. I am pretty dissappointed how basically the entire press has picked sides. I don't really care if it's my side either. A few days ago I was still buying the Independent as it was the only paper not telling me how to think. But even they have effectively called for a Libdem voting reform, and suggested anti-Conservative tactical voting. The only neutral paper I could find was the Friday Ad.
Thankfully the BBC maintain high standards of impartiality, as always.
But the press is frankly an embarrassment.
I still have faith in the British Electorate to make up their own minds about things.
And I'll let you make your own mind up to. Vote for whoever you like. Go on! Or don't vote at all! It's completly up to you! Nobody has to know who you voted for either - it's a secret ballot! I'm not going to tell you what to do...
Nor am I going to heavily imply it. In any case I'd rather convince one person than brainwash ten.
And the only person I really needed to convince was myself.
SHARE OF THE VOTE
Conservatives: 36%
Labour: 29%
Liberal Democrats: 26%
(Others: 9%)
How this will plan out into seats in The Commons?
Well, I reckon Tories will get 300+, but won't guess any further than that. The swing in the marginals really will make a signifiicant difference. I suspect the Liberal Democrat vote will get squeezed a little and that the Labour Party still has enough core supporters to avoid electoral wipeout. That said, as I project the swing from Labour to the Tories to be over 5% (and a similar Labour to Liberal swing) there will be a large number of seats changing hands, and I expect Labour to have somewhere around 230 seats. As for the Liberal Democrats, I speculate that the bulk of their gains (which may number a dozen or two dozen) will be off Labour, as they were in 2005. The Conservative/Liberal marginals are a very different ball game. The way I see it, the Liberal Democrats are fighting two seperate elections - one against Labour and one against the Conservatives. I expect the Yellow/Red battlefront to be a lot more bloody than the Yellow/Blue battlefront. That does not mean to say the Lib/Con marginals aren't bitterly fought - they are, very. However, I don't see a significant swing occuring one way or the other.
I won't make predictions for individual seats because I really don't have that much information on which to base my judgements. However, I will make a full prediction for Hove
n.b. I have assumed a 20% increase in turnout
Hove - CON GAIN
CON: 21,000
LAB: 16,500
LIB: 11,000
GREEN: 4,500
Brighton Kemptown I suspect will fall almost as easily as Hove
Though it is tempting to be constantly wary of 'surprise result', I basically think that seats like Hove and Kemptown will just be sweeped by the Tory Brush no matter how much dust Labour piles there.
Brighton Pavilion is a little more interesting. A lot more interesting, really. And unlike my good pal Aidan who made a £5 bet (Even odds against a friend) that the Greens will not win Pavilion, I think the Greens will win. The way the trends are panning out it seems this is a genuine three way contest. The Labour vote will decline, but it really depends whether their ex-supporters go to Greens of the Conservatives. But I also expect, crucially, the Liberal Democrat contingent (they came fourth in 2005) to be inclined to vote tactically. However, this could mean anything - Vote Green to stop Labour from winning, Vote Green to stop the Tories from winning, vote Tory to stop Labour from winning... et cetera.
The count itself will be conducted at the Brighton Centre, so I have heard. All three seats will be counted and, presumably, announced there. The declarations are expected at around 3.30AM. Though by then we should have a good idea how the Tories are doing in the marginals (and effectively how decisive the Tory gains in Hove and Kemptown are) I don't think any result will give us much of a clue what's going on in Pavilion.
Exciting though it would be, I don't think I'll go to the count myself. It would just take up too much time and feel a little lonely once the result is announced. I'd rather be in the good company of David Dimbleby and co. It's a shame I'm no longer at university - that would be a great place to watch the election.
...or would it? I watched the first parts of the American presidential election (2008) at Warwick Student's Union, but everyone there was so loud and hysterical (particularly the Obama contingent, of whom 95% of the atendees were formed) that we couldn't really hear the punditry. I left before any results came out and watched at home instead right up until the 4AM victory.
It's 1AM now. I was thinking of getting up early and making an early visit to the polling station. However, I probably shouldn't offend my circadian rhythms any further then they will be already - I am planning to watch the entire election night coverage right up until dawn by which time 90% of the results should be in. If it really becomes a nailbiter (which well it might) I'll make the effort to stay up that much longer. Maybe I'll fall asleep with the TV on.
Tomorrow is Thursday. I expect to vote either immediately before lunch or immediately after. I expect it to be a pub lunch washed down with a bitter shandy or two. I do have some work to do in the afternoon, but that shouldn't take more than about 3 hours at most (I dare say) and so I will be left with plenty of time to walk around town to see what the voting activity is like and where the polling stations are. I'll try to pop by the Brighton Centre too, not that I really expect to see much. All I really want to know is just how shrouded in mystery the count is. It's not the sort of thing you would expect them to publicize, but it is nevertheless a logistically impressive, visable event, and for counts to be held behind lock doors would simply not be tolerated in this country.
But where is this country heading? Well, I'll guess I'll have to stick to my prediction I made a few paragraphs ago. CONSERVATIVE MARGINAL VICTORY - not necessarily a majority, but they ought to win over 300 seats and ought to poll a fairly decisive lead in the votes.
And one of those votes will be from me.
But I won't tell you how to vote. I am pretty dissappointed how basically the entire press has picked sides. I don't really care if it's my side either. A few days ago I was still buying the Independent as it was the only paper not telling me how to think. But even they have effectively called for a Libdem voting reform, and suggested anti-Conservative tactical voting. The only neutral paper I could find was the Friday Ad.
Thankfully the BBC maintain high standards of impartiality, as always.
But the press is frankly an embarrassment.
I still have faith in the British Electorate to make up their own minds about things.
And I'll let you make your own mind up to. Vote for whoever you like. Go on! Or don't vote at all! It's completly up to you! Nobody has to know who you voted for either - it's a secret ballot! I'm not going to tell you what to do...
Nor am I going to heavily imply it. In any case I'd rather convince one person than brainwash ten.
And the only person I really needed to convince was myself.
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